Mortality Estimation in Gaza (Session 31)

MORTALITY ESTIMATION IN GAZA
Between Politics and Reality
Teach-In Session 31 - September 5, 2024

TEACHING NOTES

OBJECTIVE
BIOGRAPHIES
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

This teaching module aims to discuss the basics of mortality estimation and correct misinformation about mortality data in Gaza.
Additionally, it aims to provide an understanding of how war influences various health outcomes, including infectious diseases, and what this all means for Palestinians in Gaza on the ground.

Zeina Jamaluddine is a nutritionist and epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. Her work focuses on improving the health of women and children affected by conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Her research includes validating tools for assessing insecurities, quantifying health and nutrition inequalities, and evaluating assistance interventions. During the Gaza war, Jamaluddine co-authored an analysis examining excess mortality in Gaza during the early stages of the war, using data from the Palestinian Ministry of Health. She also led a research project developing scenario-based projections of excess deaths in Gaza, which aimed to quantify the potential indirect health impacts of the ongoing crisis. These included projections related to infectious disease mortality, maternal and newborn mortality, non-communicable disease mortality, and increased acute malnutrition.

Bassam Haddad (Moderator) is Founding Director of the Middle East and Islamic Studies Program and Associate Professor at the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. He is the author of Business Networks in Syria: The Political Economy of Authoritarian Resilience (Stanford University Press, 2011) and co-editor of A Critical Political Economy of the Middle East (Stanford University Press, 2021). Bassam is Co-Founder/Editor of Jadaliyya Ezine and Executive Director of the Arab Studies Institute. He serves as Founding Editor of the Arab Studies Journal and the Knowledge Production Project. He is co-producer/director of the award-winning documentary film, About Baghdad, and director of the acclaimed series Arabs and Terrorism. Bassam serves on the Board of the Arab Council for the Social Sciences and is Executive Producer of Status Audio Magazine and Director of the Middle East Studies Pedagogy Initiative (MESPI). He received MESA's Jere L. Bacharach Service Award in 2017 for his service to the profession. Currently, Bassam is working on his second Syria book titled Understanding the Syrian Calamity: Regime, Opposition, Outsiders (forthcoming, Stanford University Press).

Teach-In: Know Your Rights: The Assault on Campus Activism
For more teach-ins on Palestine: Gaza in Context Teach-Ins

FULL TEACH IN

CONTENTS

Zeina's First Remarks
On Access to Data
How Zeina Approached Mortality Estimation During the War
On Direct and Indirect Effects
On Methodology and Life After the War
How Accurate is the 40,000 Death Toll Number?
How Can You Track Indirect Deaths?
Can These Numbers be Used in a Court of Law?
How Quickly will Starvation Cause Deaths in Gaza?
Gaza vs Yemen, Sudan, Syria
On Crisis n Gaza Projection Reports
How Many Have Been Killed?
How Should We Interpret the Lancet 180k Number/Estimation
Did Any British Media Outlets Show Interest in Zeina's Reports on Gaza?
Zeina's Final Remarks

"I think being precise and using creative methods is what's going to help us show the reality on the ground. I will emphasize that we need to be transparent and always talk about numbers we can defend because people are going to attack [the estimation] and we have to be able to defend what we're talking about." - Zeina Jamaluddine

TEACHING RESOURCES

OVERVIEW
DISCUSSION & RESEARCH-BASED QUESTIONS
CREATIVE/GROUP PROJECTS & ACTIVIES

In this 31st Teach-In, our guest addresses approaches to mortality estimation across time from trauma during the war on Gaza, including indirect health effects and attendant projections—infectious diseases, nutrition related diseases, non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and maternal/newborn health. Zeina concludes with examining data reliability and accuracy in Gaza’s calamitous circumstances.

What are the differences between direct vs indirect deaths in conflicts? Why does this matter?
What challenges does the war pose to gathering mortality and epidemiological data in Gaza?
What is the significance of mortality estimations? How is it relevant and what might it influence? Why is this data important?
What are some ethical concerns around the process of collecting mortality data?
What might the long term effects of the high mortality, malnutrition/poor health, and the collapse of the healthcare system in Gaza be?

Intergenerational Trauma Study: Students explore the concept of intergenerational trauma and long term health impacts in the context of Palestine, focusing on how ongoing Israeli occupation and violence affects multiple generations of children with emphasis on historical events such as the Nakba as well as smaller-scale instances of violence and the subsequent impact they continue to have from generation to generation. They may propose a theoretical model illustrating potential transmission mechanisms and intervention points and refer to memoirs, interviews, and existing studies.
Educational Access Case Study: Groups of students may investigate the state of and access to education in the West Bank and/or Gaza, focusing on factors like infrastructure damage, resource shortages, and safety concerns for Palestinian students. They can compile data on enrollment rates, educational outcomes, and compare these to regional standards, as well as engage in a broader investigation examining infrastructure surrounding schools in the West Bank, noting Israeli checkpoints or recorded arrests/use of violence against students.
Children's Voices Project: Students may analyze existing interviews, testimonies, or creative works (e.g., artwork, poetry) by Palestinian children or initiatives facilitating such expression to identify common themes in how they express their experiences, hopes, and challenges. Students can present their findings in a structured report or thematic presentation with the aim of bringing to life the teach-in's speakers' theories and findings.

SEGMENTS

1. Zeina's First Remarks

Zeina gives an overview of the healthcare infrastructure in Gaza before the war, how they typically approach mortality data, and how the war has affected all this

2. Access to Data

Zeina talks about how people generally collect data for mortality estimations and the difficulties they are having getting this information in Gaza

3. How Zeina Approached Mortality Estimation During the War

Zeina shares how she approached mortality estimations during this war on Gaza.

4. Direct and Indirect Deaths

Zeina explains the difference and significance of direct versus indirect deaths when calculating mortality data.

5. Methodology and Life After the War

Zeina shares her methodology and talks about what life could possibly be like in Gaza after a ceasefire.